As several as 400,000 people could die, mainly in Pacific coastal areas from Shizuoka to Kochi prefectures, if a Nankai Trough triple earthquake happens, according to a new prediction by Kansai University Professor Yoshiaki Kawata.

Kawata, who unveiled the prediction Friday at a lecture in Osaka, mentioned a Cabinet Office study panel that he chairs will announce a similar prediction in late August.

A Nankai Trough quake is forecast to occur if the so-named Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes strike simultaneously.

In 2003, the government’s Central Disaster Management Council predicted the death toll from a magnitude-8.7 triple quake would be about 25,000 at most.

After the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Cabinet Office raised the magnitude to 9 and unveiled in March its prediction of a Nankai Trough quake’s maximum seismic intensity and the height of ensuing tsunami.

The Cabinet Officeis now working on new predictions concerning casualties and other damage as a outcome of such a disaster.

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Sources and more information:

• 400,000 may die if Nankai Trough quake happens at night: expert

400,000 may die if Nankai Trough quake happens at night: expert OSAKA, July 7, Kyodo As many as 400,000 people may die if a massive earthquake occurs late at night at the Nankai Trough located in waters off the Tokai region in central Japan to the Shikoku region in the west, an expert said Friday in an estimate.

• Experts Fear That 400,000 People May Die if Quake Strikes Nankai Trough at Night

According to Wikipedia, the Nankai Trough is the near-surface extension of a zone of active seismicity that dips beneath South West Japan. It is located in waters off the Tokai region in central Japan to the Shikoku region in the west. According to the experts, should an earthquake occur in this region at night, as many as 400,000 people may die…

• New prediction shows triple quake to kill 400,000 in Japan